Monday, 7 March 2011

Wonders of Time Value of Money and Compounding Interest

I'm currently taking CFA lvl 1 and among the topics in the CFA lvl 1 curriculum, i find that one of the topics that can greatly help us is 'Time Value of Money'.
Basically it focus on how compounding interest and the time we have can greatly benefit us if we can make use of this knowledge in managing our money.
Naturally it will be a very great advantage if we have a lot of time in our hands as well as some cash.

A lot of us know that inflation is always around us. However many of us prefer to keep our money in bank due to the fact that most of us are risk averse.
However if we can make use of value investing techniques and invest for long periods, most of the time we can avoid heavy loses due to timing or fear.

I have listed down a few calculations which i did discuss with my gf on how to invest and save in order to enjoy a sum of $3500 every month for 20 years.I hope  i will read this article any time if needed anywhere and help you guys if you happen to chance upon this article.

通货膨胀率是一个隐形的大强盗。 它不会光明正大的抢你的钱,它会偷偷的贬低钱的价值。
一个非常好的例子, 就是十年前,一碗面只卖两块钱。今天的十年后,一碗面就卖了三块三毛钱。
十年后的两块,已经不再有十年前的价值了。
为了避免贬低钱的价值, 我们能做的就是:
第一:自己开生意
第二:赌博
第三:投资

要开个生意,就要有生意的头脑和一些有创造力的好点子。
去赌博的话,就要承受和面对很大的风险
要不然,就用另一个方法,那就是投资。可是投资不是没有风险的。
要减少风险方法, 就是长期投资和使用 'Value Investing'。

在我读CFA Lvl1的时期中,我觉得在那么多的课题中,一个对我们有帮助的,就是资金的时间价值(Time Value of Money).
以下是资金的时间价值的算法,只要每个月投资一笔基金持续34年,复合年均增长率在6%, 我们可以在老年拥有20年
的基金,每个月能拿大约$3500的钱来养老不做工。
当然要实现 这个梦想,就要提早的投资和长期投资。

The Minimum return that we hope to get from the investment, we set it to 6%.
Therefore every stock you purchase the returns must not be less than 6% and
compounded using 6%.

Inflation rate mostly average around 2% throughout every yr in singapore.
Nominal returns 6 %
Find the real return using this formula:
nominal rate = real rate * inflation rate
Real returns =(1.06)/(1.02) = 3.92%

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Assuming we want to have $3500($42000 per year) every mth for retirement
at age 62 and expected to leave the earth at age 82.
I set $3500 per mth is because we need to set aside for medical bills just in case.

The amount that we need now is:
N=20, I/Y= 3.92, PMT= 42000, Present value will be $597,393.

Converting the present value above to set the value on par to inflation
rate of 2%:
N=34, I/Y=2%, PV = 597,393, Future value = $1171293
This amt $1,171,293 is the amount we need to have in order to have $3500
after we retire in order to get $3500 every mth for 20 years in today
value.

Next using the above amt, we calculate the amt in today value, we need to
save at 6% interest rate compound yearly for 34 years.
N=34, I/Y=6%, FV = 1,171,293, PMT = $11,242
Every year, WE NEED TO SAVE $11,242 which is $936.83 monthly.

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